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报告题目：季度水文预测在美国的最新发展
Recent advances in seasonal hydrologic predictions in the US
报 告 人：骆利峰（Lifeng Luo）博士
密歇根州立大学地理系助理教授
时 间：2009年11月12日下午3：00-4：00
地 点：2321会议室
欢迎感兴趣的老师和同学在4：00-5：00之间和骆利峰（Lifeng Luo）博士进行单独交流；如需预约12号其它的时间段，请和陈庆美（chenqm@igsnrr.ac.cn）或者苏红波（suhb@igsnrr.ac.cn）联系。
报告摘要:
Skillful seasonal hydrologic predictions are useful in managing water resources, preparing for droughts and their impacts, energy planning, and many other related sectors. Studies over the last two decades have demonstrated the feasibility of seasonal climate predictions with dynamical climate models. As these predictions become routinely available from several weather and climate prediction centers and research institutes such as NCEP, and the predictions have shown significant skill over the tropics and improved skill in the mid-latitudes, there is the expectation these predictions can contribute to the development of seasonal hydrologic prediction capabilities. However, major challenges exist in using such predictions in seasonal hydrologic forecasting, including model bias in precipitation and temperature fields, the disparity in spatial scales between those resolved in climate models and those needed for hydrologic applications. In this presentation, we will discuss major challenges and recent research in this area. We develop new approaches and strategies to downscale the precipitation and temperature forecasts from climate models such as the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and models in European Union DEMETER project, for hydrologic forecasting. A Bayesian approach is used to merge multi-model forecasts with observed climatology, such that the uncertainties related to the precipitation and temperature can be better quantified. Simultaneously, climate model forecasts are downscaled to an appropriate spatial scale for hydrologic predictions. When generating daily meteorological forcing, the system uses the rank structures of selected historical forcing records to ensure reasonable weather patterns in space and time. The applications of these new approaches will also be presented.
陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室
2009年11月6日
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附 件